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Oct 19 2011

Support for Herman Cain Surges with Texas Republicans

category: Presidential Primary,Texas Polls author:

In the aftermath of a successful performance in recent debates, our latest poll shows a surge in support for businessman Herman Cain among Texas Republican voters.  The dramatic change in this poll from our last poll suggests that many voters remain only weakly committed to their current candidate preference.

These results are from the final section of our recent pol of 10/12 to 10/17 which was conducted through automated phonecalls and direct email solicitations of 4372 Republican voters in the state of Texas of whom 832 responded to the poll. 56% of the responses came from direct email contacts and 44% from telephone responses. The pool consisted of active party members identified by association with clubs, groups and party organizations and voters who were identified from voter rolls as having voted Republican in 2008 and 2010.  They were geographically distributed over most of the state, with clusters in Tarrant, Denton, Comal, Harris, Hays, Travis, Blanco, Collin, Llano and Montgomery Counties. The results of other questions also included in this poll have been released separately.

Poll Date: 10/12-10/17, 2011
Poll Method: Direct Email and Automated Calls
Poll Sample: 844 Republican voters in Texas
Margin of Error: +/- 3%

Candidate Graph Percent
Herman Cain 33%
Ron Paul 19%
Rick Perry 18%
Mitt Romney 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Gary Johnson 3%
John Huntsman 3%
Michele Bachmann 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%
Fred Karger 0%
Undecided 7%

The bar graph accurately reflects actual poll responses.

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.

Oct 17 2011

Dewhurst and Cruz Neck and Neck in Texas Senate Race

category: Texas Polls author:

These results are from a poll which was conducted through automated phonecalls and direct email solicitations of 4372 Republican voters in the state of Texas of whom 844 responded to the poll. 56% of the responses came from direct email contacts and 44% from telephone responses. The pool consisted of active party members identified by association with clubs, groups and party organizations and voters who were identified from voter rolls as having voted Republican in 2008 and 2010. They were geographically distributed over most of the state, with clusters in Tarrant, Denton, Comal, Harris, Hays, Travis, Blanco, Collin, Llano and Montgomery Counties. The results of other questions also included in this poll will be released separately.

Poll Date: 10/12-10/17, 2011
Poll Method: Direct Email and Automated Calls
Poll Sample: 844 Republican voters in Texas
Margin of Error: +/- 3%

Candidate Graph Percent
Ted Cruz 32%
David Dewhurst 31%
Tom Leppert 8%
Lela Pittenger 5%
Elizabeth Ames Jones 4%
Glenn Addison 3%
Andre Castanuela 1%
Curtis Cleaver 0%
Undecided 14%

 

The bar graph accurately reflects actual poll responses. The exact spread between the two frontrunners is less than 1% (.59%).  The number of undecideds (including no response entries) remains very high, but is not enough to give either leading candidate a clear majority, suggesting the likelihood, at this early date, of a run-off.

Other data from this poll is being released separately this week.

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.

Oct 16 2011

Demographic Trends in the Republican Party

category: Issue Polls,Poll Analysis author:

One of the standard control questions which we ask with most of our polls is the age of the respondent.  Taking the answers to this question from a series of polls conducted nationwide involving over 8000 participants during the past 6 months has given us a pretty good profile of the age of the Republican voter base going into the 2012 election.

To start, the obvious conclusion from the breakdown of ages is that most Republican voters are quite old. The party will probably lose over a third of its members to old age in the next 20 years and has only tiny base of younger voters to replace them.

Age Range Graph Percent
18-27 6%
28-37 14%
38-47 15%
48-57 24%
58+ 37%

 

The Republican Party is not a party of the young. More than two thirds of those polled were over 48 years old and only 20% were in the bottom two age brackets. This raises the question of what kind of a future a party has whose membership averages close to retirement age with very few new members becoming involved at or near college age. There’s not much time left for those who currently lead the party. Membership is already shrinking and the trend suggested in these polls is one which would leave the Republican party as a much smaller minority party in less than a generation.

The other significant aspect of this is the difference in political preferences between older and younger Republicans. Taking another question asked in two of our recent polls of a total of about 1800 voters, addressing what the top issue concerns for the 2012 election are, younger Republicans responded very differently from their older counterparts. In these polls both groups agreed that “Government Spending” and “Unemployment” were the top concerns

18-37 Year Olds 58 and Older
Issue Graph Percent Graph Percent
Government Spending 50% 36%
Unemployment 26% 22%
Individual Liberty 15% 14%
Right to Life 5% 10%
Family Values 0% 7%
Immigration 0% 6%

 

The first thing a look at the top and bottom age ranges reveals is that the Republican Party is not nearly as socially conservative as generally believed. The support for “Family Values” and even “Right to Life” issues is relatively small across the board. But while the groups are substantially similar in their positions on the most important – mostly economic – issues, they are radically different when it comes to the more divisive social issues. In the poll on which this is based, out of almost 1000 responses there were almost no participants under the age of 37 who ranked “Immigration” or “Family Values” as a top concern and half as many gave “Right to Life” the top rating as in the older age group. This suggests that for the younger generation of Republicans social issues are an absolute non-priority, or at best issues of convenience which they don’t prioritize significantly.

The first thing a look at the top and bottom age ranges reveals is that the Republican Party is not nearly as socially conservative as generally believed. The support for “Family Values” and even “Right to Life” issues is relatively small across the board. But while the groups are substantially similar in their positions on the most important – mostly economic – issues, they are radically different when it comes to the more divisive social issues. In the poll on which this is based, out of almost 1000 responses there were almost no participants under the age of 37 who ranked “Immigration” or “Family Values” as a top concern and half as many gave “Right to Life” the top rating as in the older age group. This suggests that for the younger generation of Republicans social issues are an absolute non-priority, or at best issues of convenience which they don’t prioritize significantly.

This is further born out by candidate polling. In recent polls older voters go much more heavily for socially conservative candidates like Rick Perry and Herman Cain, while younger voters are attracted to the more socially moderate or socially neutral candidates like Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.

18-37 Year Olds 58 and Older
Issue Graph Percent Graph Percent
Social Conservatives 52% 78%
Social Moderates 46% 20%

 

In the older age group support for social conservatives is three times support for social moderates, while in the younger group the support splits almost 50-50.  Given that some social moderates are also among the most fiscally conservative candidates this bears out the trend towards much less interest in socially conservative views among younger Republican voters.
It is inevitable that the socially conservative 23% of the oldest population group will die off and do so fairly quickly.  They will almost all be gone within two decades.  In addition to reducing the total membership of the party by as much as a third, they will also leave behind a party with very little interest in social conservatism.  You can draw your own conclusions from this, but at the very least it means that prioritizing social issues is a big mistake in the long term as it turns away younger voters and panders to a vocal minority which won’t be around for long.

Some content in this article appeared previously in Blogcritics Magazine

Oct 14 2011

Poll of New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters (9/12-9/18)

category: Issue Polls,Presidential Primary author:

This poll was conducted through automated phonecalls and direct email solicitations of 6164 Republican voters in the state of New Hampshire of whom 421 responded to the poll. 58% of the responses came from email contacts and 42% from telephone responses.

Poll Date: 9/12-9./18, 2011
Poll Method: Direct Email and Automated Calls
Poll Sample: 421 Republican voters in New Hampshire
Margin of Error: +/- 3%

Top Issues of Concern Among New Hampshire Republicans

  • Federal Spending – 30%
  • Personal Liberty – 28%
  • Unemployment – 26%
  • Foreign Policy  – 16%

If the Republican Primary were held today, who would you vote for?

  • Mitt Romney – 26%
  • Ron Paul – 23%
  • Rick Perry – 11%
  • Gary Johnson – 8%
  • Herman Cain – 7%
  • John Huntsman – 5%
  • Michele Bachmann – 3%
  • Newt Gingrich – 2%
  • Buddy Roemer – 1%
  • Rick Santorum – 1%
  • Undecided – 13%

Which Presidential candidate would you like to see get more media coverage?

  • Ron Paul – 32%
  • Gary Johnson – 25%
  • Herman Cain – 15%
  • Rick Perry 10%
  • Mitt Romney – 8%
  • Buddy Roemer – 4%
  • Other – 6%

Jul 07 2011

Texas GOP Primary Poll: Secondary Analysis

category: Poll Analysis author:

There has been some discussion in online forums of the discrepancies between our recent poll of Texas GOP primary voters and other polls conducted in recent weeks. There aren’t a lot of other polls about the Texas election yet, but a particular comparison has been made with a poll from Public Policy Polling, but these differences are relatively easy to explain.

PPP does not go into detail on their methodology, but they do say this much:

“PPP surveyed 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters from June 25th to 27th. The
margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company…”

This is different in a number of respects from the methods used in our poll.  Our sample was considerably larger, about twice the size, which should produce a more balanced result. The PPP poll asked a great many questions, not just the straightforward presidential matchup we focused on, including favorability questions and mixed presidential matchups.  In addition, they included candidates who are not running like Sarah Palin and omitted declared candidates like Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum, distorting their results.

Most importantly, they polled Texas Republican Primary voters, while our sample focused on highly involved Republican voters with clusters in the most politically active Republican areas of the state and using lists taken not only from voter rolls but also from  other sources likely to identify voters whose awareness of candidates and issues is substantially higher.  Basically, they polled voters and we polled more of the grassroots party activists who will influence those voters.

With our more informed and involved sample it i almost certain that pure name recognition played much less of a role in our poll.  This means that our results may be more indicative of future trends when voters have had time to become more informed about the candidates and issues, while the PPP poll may be a better snapshot of a broader segment of the voter base at this moment.

As an interesting aside, our results are actually rather similar to another PPP poll from New Hampshire, which shows Paul leading Perry by almost exactly the same ratio as we found in our Texas poll.

We also should not discount the political bias which PPP itself admits to.  Although they are a relatively new polling source they have been widely used in the last few month by the left-leaning media because of the generally aberrant results from their polls which seem to suggest much more of a politically extreme swing in the Republican voter base than other polls indicate.

All this being said, the current high ranking of Representative Ron Paul in the poll should not be taken as more significant than it is.  He has been widely and favorably covered in the right-leaning media in the last few months and stands in much greater favor with grassroots party activists than he does with the broader and less aware voter base.  This may change substantially as other candidates distinguish themselves or drop out of the race.

Remember that this was a single question poll and conducted very simply.  We do not have extensive demographic analysis of the participants, though we do have an exact count of the sources from which the numbers called were drawn and of the the basis on which the querants were identified as high intensity GOP voters.  We also have a basic geographical distribution, which is as follows:

Houston Area: 30%
Dallas/Fort Worth: 21%
Austin Area: 18%
San Antonio Area: 11%
Rio Grande Valley Area:  10%
Gulf Coast: 6%
West Texas: 4%

For any who wish to see the raw data, here it is broken down by candidate cross-indexed with region, taken straight from the MS Excel form used to do the totals.


Pawlenty 6 5 1 1 0 3 3 19
Bachmann 18 13 8 7 3 4 5 58
Paul 63 38 36 24 11 14 5 191
Johnson 28 13 23 4 3 3 2 76
Romney 7 17 14 17 9 8 2 74
Cain 48 21 23 5 17 4 3 121
Perry 41 31 25 15 29 6 7 154
Gingrich 23 29 18 9 10 5 2 96
Santorum 3 2 4 2 0 0 0 11
Huntsman 7 4 4 1 0 0 1 17
Undecided 21 13 2 12 7 5 5 65
Total 265 186 158 97 89 52 35 882
HOU DFW AUS SAT RGV GC WTX TOT

Jul 06 2011

Who are the Top GOP Contenders in Texas?

category: Presidential Primary,Texas Polls author:

With its expanded number of electoral votes, if the field doesn’t narrow down too much, Texas could play a key roll in determining the Republican nominee for 2012.  While everyone is watching the early states like New Hampshire and Iowa we’re taking a look at a big state which could decide the ultimate outcome.

Poll Date: 5/29-6/3, 2011
Poll Method: Monitored and automated calls
Poll Sample: 882 highly active Republican voters in Texas
Margin of Error: +/- 2%

Question: If the Texas Republican primary were held today, which presidential candidate would you be most likely to vote for?

Ron Paul – 22%
Rick Perry – 17%
Herman Cain – 14%
Newt Gingrich – 11%
Gary Johnson – 9%
Mitt Romney – 8%
Michele Bachmann – 7%
Tim Pawlenty – 2%
John Huntsman – 2%
Rick Santorum – 1%
Undecided – 7%

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.

Jun 16 2011

Who’s Unelectable in the Republican Field?

category: Presidential Primary author:

Everyone does polls to see who the most popular candidates are. We decided to go the other way and see which candidates had disgraced themselves most effectively with their past actions and associations.

Poll Date: 5/12-5/16, 2011
Poll Method: Monitored and automated calls
Poll Sample: 2698 voters nationwide
Margin of Error: +/- 2%

Question: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates do you consider most unelectable in the general election because of their lifestyle, association or past actions?

Newt Gingrich – 32%
Mitt Romney – 18%
Rick Santorum – 10%
Ron Paul – 9%
Michele Bachmann – 8%
Herman Cain – 6%
Gary Johnson – 5%
Tim Pawlenty – 3%

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.

Apr 27 2011

Should Gambling be Legalized in Texas?

category: Issue Polls,Texas Polls author:

There is a major struggle over whether some form of gambling should be legalized in Texas during this legislative session.  We decided to ask a simple  question to get a feel for how Texas voters are thinking about the issue

Poll Date: 4/18-4./21, 2011
Poll Method: Direct Email (53%), Automated phone calls (47%)
Poll Sample: 510 likely Texas voters of all parties
Margin of Error: +/- 3.4%

Question: With a substantial revenue shortfall and estimates of state tax revenue from legalized gambling as high as $2 billion a year, should the Texas legislature act to legalize gambling during the current legislative session?

No.  Texas does not need gambling of any kind -18%

Yes.  But limit new gambling to slot machines at racetracks and bingo parlors. – 11%

Yes.  Allow casino-style gambling at racetracks and on indian land. – 63%

Unsure or no opinion. – 8%

This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. Azimuth Research Group is a non-partisan polling company.

 

Jul 07 2010

What’s Next?

category: Uncategorized author:

We have two local Texas polls planned for the next month.  First, we plan to do a poll on the hotly contested Senatorial election.  We’re also looking at doing a poll on the very interesting Republican primary for Texas Congressional District 25 which is basically up for grabs with 8 candidates jumping in.

The CD25 poll will focus almost entirely on heavily involved Republican voters because at this point none of the candidates have the name recognition for a poll of the general voter base to be meaningful.